The Population Cliff Is Here. What It Means for Private School Enrollment.

The population decline in the United States, driven by historically low birth rates,¹ is now starting to flow through K–12 education. The total number of school-age children (ages 6–17) peaked in 2020 at just under 51 million. Forecasters project that number will drop to 46 million by 2035 — a decline of roughly 9%.²

For most schools, the graduating class of 2041 will be about 10.5% smaller than the class of 2023.³ The actual impact will vary by geography, with sharper declines expected in the Northeast and Midwest and modest increases in the South and parts of the West.³ But regardless of where your school sits on the map, the takeaway is the same: school leaders should expect to be working with smaller and more competitive enrollment pools for the foreseeable future, and should be adjusting their strategies accordingly.

Many schools are already in decline

Our enrollment data, tracked at the state level using Department of Education records, shows that many schools are already in a state of contraction. Shifting demographics, affordability challenges, competition from other schools, and the rise of alternative educational models like homeschooling and microschools are all contributing factors. School leaders are navigating a complex environment to find, attract, and retain the right students. Unfortunately, many are losing that fight.

In California, where we have the deepest enrollment history, roughly one-third of all private schools are experiencing declining enrollment, with 27% of those declining at more than 5% per year. At that rate, a 300-student school loses 70 students over five years — nearly a quarter of its enrollment. The population cliff will only worsen the situation for these schools, making the need for sound strategic thinking more urgent than ever.

That said, the picture is complicated rather than simply bleak. Private schools have been gaining market share even as the overall market contracts — growing at 3–6% annually from 2019 to 2022, far exceeding the pre-pandemic rate.⁴ State-funded school choice participation surpassed 1 million students by end of 2024,⁵ and roughly half of all U.S. students will be eligible for some form of private school choice funding by 2026–27.⁶ The total addressable market is shrinking, but the share of families willing to leave the public system is expanding. Schools with strong positioning and diversified revenue are best situated to navigate what’s ahead.

Growth doesn’t guarantee stability

Large schools with steady growth and waitlists are not immune to these challenges. In our data, we see schools that peaked enrollment several years ago only to reverse course and give back a significant share of those gains. We identified 357 schools across four states that grew at 3% or more annually and then flipped to declines of 3% or more. That’s nearly 1 in 13 schools with four or more years of enrollment data.

The typical reversal school is mid-sized — median peak enrollment of 137 students — but the pattern holds at scale. We found schools with 500, 700, even 1,000+ students that grew aggressively through 2021–22 and then gave back a significant share of those gains. A mid-sized religious school in Northern California grew 31% from 2019 to 2021, then lost 54% from its peak. A prestigious K–12 independent school in Philadelphia with over 1,000 students grew 24% before giving back nearly a fifth of that enrollment.

Two-thirds of these reversal schools peaked in 2022–23 — suggesting that for many, the post-COVID enrollment surge was temporary. Families came. Then families left. Schools that hired staff, expanded programs, or took on debt to accommodate the growth were left holding the costs without the revenue to support them.

The demand is there — the conversion isn’t

The news isn’t all bad. Demand for private school remains strong: roughly 36% of parents say they would prefer to send their children to a private school over a public one. With only 8–9% of students actually enrolled in private schools,⁷ there’s untapped potential in nearly every market. The gap between preference and enrollment comes down to three things: affordability, geographic availability, and awareness. For schools that can address those barriers, the opportunity is real — even in a contracting demographic environment.

What school leaders can do

The population cliff is not a reason to panic. It’s a reason to plan. The schools that come through this well will be the ones that understand their specific market conditions and make informed decisions, not the ones relying on gut feel or last year’s enrollment numbers. Here’s where to start:

Know your market. Understand the demographic trajectory of your draw area — not the national average, but the specific ZIP codes your families come from. Is your school-age population growing or shrinking? How does your market compare to competitors in your area? Data-driven market analysis is the foundation of every good strategic plan.

Benchmark your tuition and financials against real peers. Your competitive set isn’t “all private schools.” It’s schools in your segment, in your geography, serving the same families. Make sure your pricing reflects where you actually sit in that landscape — not where you think you sit.

Watch your pipeline, not just your headcount. Total enrollment is a lagging indicator. What’s happening in your youngest grades tells you where enrollment will be in 3–5 years. If your elementary classes are shrinking while your upper school holds steady, the math will catch up.

Plan for multiple scenarios. The schools that got caught by the post-COVID reversal were often the ones that staffed for growth without hedging for the possibility that the surge was temporary. Build flexibility into your operating model so you can adjust without crisis.

How Schoolhouse HQ Can Help

Schoolhouse HQ provides market intelligence and strategic planning tools built specifically for private school leaders. Our platform covers over 10,000 schools with tuition benchmarking, enrollment trend analysis, financial health indicators, and competitive landscape data — all segmented by school type, grade level, and geography. We give you the data you need to make confident decisions about tuition, enrollment strategy, and competitive positioning.

Whether you’re preparing for a board presentation, setting next year’s tuition, or trying to understand how the demographic landscape affects your school specifically — we can help.